What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Weekly Market Update March 9th, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation are in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: -2% (-2% last week)
- S&P 500: -2% (-1% last week)
- Nasdaq: -4% (-1% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies have stabilized a bit following the massive bear market selloff to start the year as risk-off investors, including many institutional investors, have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -24% 2026 (+1% last week)
- Ether: -35% in 2026 (-1% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -27% in 2026 (+3% last week)
Meanwhile, gold and silver, despite a significant recent correction from record high prices, have continued to be what they’ve historically been as a store of value. Both remain massive winners on the year:
- Gold: +20% 2026 (-4% last week)
- Silver: +20% in 2026 (-6% last week)
Where. To. Begin. It feels like I often say that these days but truly the past week has been one of those weeks for the financial markets. Obviously, it’s almost all been about the war in Iran in financial markets recently...though not entirely. Before diving into the Iran war, the impact on oil prices and related gas prices – let's look at the economic data that turned heads last week.
Friday’s government jobs report was nothing if not brutal. The report showed an unexpected decrease of 92,000 jobs in February – with the California strike of healthcare workers cited as the leading reason, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thus, with the strike over that’s expected to correct in next months report – however other underlying indicators weren’t especially encouraging. The unemployment rate was up slightly, long term unemployed people have risen by 400,000 over a year ago indicating the trouble those who’ve lost work are often having in finding a new opportunity.
There were a couple of bright spots in the government’s report. First, those who had been part-time employed but that desired full-time work decreased by nearly 500,000 during the month – meaning many were provided with full-time opportunities. Also, wages continued to rise meaningfully during the month and have risen by 3.8% year-over-year. With consumer inflation being 2.4% most recently – the average American was earning the most relative to inflation that we’ve seen in over five years. But on the back of the Iran war will that hold...
What started out as a somewhat muted oil market response early in the week last week in the early days of the Iran war – escalated quickly by the end of the week. After a massive 13% increase in oil prices on Friday – the price of wholesale oil rose by 35% during the week. It was the largest one-week increase in oil prices since 1983.
What led to the most recent ramp up in pricing was President Trump’s statement on Friday that “unconditional surrender” by the Iranian government was necessary to end the conflict. That raised concerns of a prolonged period of oil market disruption through the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through (though only 2.7% that’s U.S. energy). That dynamic will be key from here. With gas prices up significantly, and with the DHS shutdown continuing, the potential for meaningfully negative economic outcomes in this country and around the world are there. This week figures to be pivotal.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.95
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.20
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 44% drop from here, 1% less risk compared with a week ago as stock prices fell faster than fundamentals. The market is 4% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 44% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.