What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? March 16th, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation remain in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: -4% (-1% last week)
- S&P 500: -3% (-1% last week)
- Nasdaq: -5% (->1% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies have stabilized a bit following the massive bear market selloff to start the year as risk-off investors, including many institutional investors, have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -19% 2026 (+3% last week)
- Ether: -29% in 2026 (+4% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -23% in 2026 (+4% last week)
Meanwhile, gold and silver, despite a significant recent correction from record high prices, have continued to be what they’ve historically been as a store of value. Both remain massive winners on the year:
- Gold: +17% 2026 (-2% last week)
- Silver: +15% in 2026 (-8% last week)
It’s not quite as easy as looking at what oil prices are doing day to day and being able to determine what stocks will do – but it’s been close to that. As we’ve entered the third week of the Iran war, we’ve also seen three straight negative weeks for stocks. However, lost in the massive volatility in the financial markets that we’ve seen since the onset of the war, is that we’re still closer to record highs in the S&P 500 and DOW, than we are to a correction (a decline of 10% or more). In other words, market action recently has probably felt worse than the actual performance of the major indices.
Beyond stocks, last week was the first week in quiet a while that cryptos traded independently of stock market performance, as the worst performing asset for two years running, saw strong performance last week – while the two best performers of the past couple of years, gold and silver, sold off. It remains to be seen if this is bottom feeding with digital currencies commonly sitting at prices that are half, or worse, from highs – or if this could be the start of a trend where they attempt to restore their base case as a store for value.
As we look towards what will move markets this week, the Strait of Hormuz is a good place to start. On Friday War Secretary Pete Hegseth once again tried to reassure markets that there wouldn’t be a drawn-out issue with cargo ships and oil tankers making their way through the region as he said: We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it. Meanwhile, President Trump called on U.S. allies to deploy naval assets to the region to assist with the safe passage of commerce through the Strait. As Trump posted: Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and other countries “affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.
There’s a lot to unpack there, which I’ll do in my Top 3 Takeaways today, but the bottom line entering this week is that not much has changed in terms of shipping through the Strait as of now. That takes us to the price of oil. The news there isn’t good.
As we’re set to start the week, oil prices are flirting with $100 per barrel. While prices briefly peak at $118 per barrel recently, we haven’t had sustained oil prices above $100 – since July of 2022 – at the peak of the ‘Bidenflation cycle that coincided with 40+ year high inflation. There’s a real risk to the economy that inflation due to higher energy prices could become ‘sticky’ or, embedded in most aspects of the consumer economy.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.50
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 43% drop from here, 1% less risk compared with a week ago as stock prices fell faster than fundamentals. The market is 5% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 43% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.