A Less Taxing Year & A Massive Middle Eastern Cultural Shift – Top 3 Takeaways – March 18th, 2026
Takeaway #1: A less taxing year
There are likely several reasons contributing to why it is that you live in Florida (unless you’re not in which case, there will likely be several reasons why you move to Florida when you eventually do). Without a doubt, one of the reasons you chose to stay is not having a state income tax claiming a piece of your pay. It can be easy to forget once you become accustomed to it, however, it’s always a nice reminder every year when preparing taxes to be able to skip the section for state income taxes. But there’s something else that’s proven to be nice for tens of millions of tax filers this year – much lower taxes. Last year’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act made permanent President Trump’s tax cuts from the original Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 while also delivering on the president’s promises of no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security (up to certain income limits). But those weren’t the only benefits... As my analysis last summer showed...and as I said at the time... There are 27 different personal income tax changes in the new tax law. The law is wide reaching, including for example, increasing the total amount of charitable contributions you can deduct using the standard deduction. That seemingly small change alone will lower the tax burden for an estimated 81% of tax filers. In other words, there are bound to be several (likely pleasant) surprises when it comes time to file your taxes next year based on deduction limits if nothing else. But that’s really the key. The benefits of the Trump 2.0 tax cuts will largely be felt when filing taxes, as opposed to the day-to-day when you collect a paycheck. And with the passage of the BBB President Trump promised that this would be the biggest tax refund season in American history. As of this week, we’ve reached the halfway mark in the tax filing season with right at half of all expected tax returns having been filed. So, with over eight in ten Americans positioned to benefit from a lower total federal income tax burden this year what have we seen...
Takeaway #2: It is the largest tax refund season in American history
Now, if you’re having to pay additional taxes on top of the taxes you paid all throughout the year...I hear you, I understand, I don’t think I’ve had a tax refund in about twenty years. But most people do and regardless, we know how much more money is staying in your pocket this year compared to last, and the answer is...$390. Halfway through the tax season the average filing is resulting in $390 less in federal income tax having to be paid. What’s more is that the biggest benefit is with middle-income Americans. Returns filed under $100,000 have seen the biggest increase in savings, which was part of Trump’s plan for the way the additional tax breaks were placed into the law. So, while you’re probably still not happy about the price you’re paying for gas today... you’re probably getting a nice tax break if you haven’t already. Speaking of gas prices...
Takeaway #3: We’ve had great support from the Middle East
That’s a quote from President Trump yesterday. At this stage of the Iran war how do you feel? What’s your opinion? What’s your biggest concern? If you’re typical of the people polled or common narrative advanced, the answers would be, in order to those questions... impatience, disapproval and gas prices. Now consider this perspective that was widely shared yesterday... Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the dominant narrative has settled into a comfortable groove: The United States and Israel stumbled into a war without a plan. Iran is retaliating across the region. Oil prices are surging, and the world is facing another Middle Eastern quagmire. US senators have called it a blunder. Cable news has tallied the crises. Commentators have warned of a long war... But this narrative is wrong. Not because the costs are imaginary, but because the critics are measuring the wrong things. They are [cataloging] the price of the campaign while ignoring the strategic ledger. When you look at what has actually happened to Iran’s principal instruments of power – its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air [defenses], its navy and its proxy command architecture – the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades. Now here’s today’s trivia question. Where was that opinion piece featured? It wasn’t Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, or for that matter an Israeli media entity. Instead, it was the opinion piece published by Al Jazeera yesterday. Al Jazeera, as in the Qatari government-backed news agency. If you’re more concerned about gas prices today than anything that’s going on in Iran in the day-to-day, you’re likely to be unmoved by the opinion piece. And that’s ok. But there’s a much bigger story that’s playing out here that’s even more important than the Iran war. It’s the complete reshaping of the middle east. Last spring when President Trump made his way to the middle-east looking to persuade countries like the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to partner with U.S. interests over Chinese interests, it paved the path for a complete reset of regional policy. What we’ve seen with the Iran war, right down to the Al Jazeera opinion piece is that a) The countries closest to Iran are the most relieved that we’ve taken decisive action to put an end to the world’s top state sponsor of terrorism and b) policy that can permanently change things. It is true is most Americans don’t care about the middle east and don’t want to think about the middle east. But what we learned on 9/11 and have seen with Islamic terror groups like ISIS ever since, is that what’s born ideologically in the middle east doesn’t stay in the middle east. But what we haven’t had previously are middle eastern countries speaking out against Islamic extremism and subsequent Islamic terrorism. A Pew study last decade showed that approximately 70% of Muslims in the middle east believed in Sharia law. What we’ve seen diplomatically over the past year is a massive shift, and what we’re starting to see signs of is that the diplomatic shift is starting to result in a cultural shift. It’s a shift away from Islamic law and the terror ties of the past and one that aligns remarkably with U.S. and Israeli interests...along with all who would prefer not to see Islamic terrorism around the world.