Middle East Peace? The Economy & PBC’s Special Elections – Top 3 Takeaways – March 24th, 2026
Takeaway #1: And just like that...
We began the day Monday thinking that the Iran war was heading in the direction of maximum escalation by Monday night. Oil prices headed higher above $100 per barrel, stock market futures were once again deep in the red...but before the sun even came up, we had the news from President Trump’s ‘Truth’ that changed the trajectory of just about everything influenced by the war in Iran immediately. As the post read: I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! Starting the day with Trump saying that we may be on the brink of complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East was a surprise to say the least. He followed the post up with an interview with CNBC where he said: We are very intent on making a deal with Iran. It was during his interview with CNBC when Iranian state TV said: There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets. President Trump’s next call was into Fox Business where Maria Bartiromo confronted the president about Iran TV’s claims to which Trump said: When I asked about the Iranian TV saying that no talks have happened, he said, ‘It’s hard to get any information there, because of, the U.S. is blowing up so much of their infrastructure. It was shortly thereafter when President Trump told reporters as he was boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport...that there are “major points of agreement” with Iran and that if the current five-day period "goes well" the war could end. And if it doesn’t go well, “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out”.
Takeaway #2 So what should we make out of all of this?
As an analyzer of things, it’s notable that President Trump’s first interview after posting the Iran news was to CNBC – targeting the business and investment community. Clearly the financial markets are on President Trump’s mind. And on that note last week’s wholesale inflation report showed inflation has reaccelerated in February – preceding the Iranian war with oil and gas prices rising to 3.5-year highs. If oil and gas prices were to stay high indefinitely, it would effectively undermine everything he wants to accomplish domestically from lowering interest rates to a faster growth economy. Higher inflation would also make what’s already a historically challenging midterm election cycle for Republicans, if they’re to retain congressional majorities, an essentially impossible one. However, the dynamic shifts considerably if suddenly President Trump is able to achieve these things... Peace in the Middle East with Iran no longer acting as a state sponsor of terror. A free Venezuela heading towards open and honest elections, while rapidly increasing oil production beyond Maduro levels (this is already happening as Chevron said Venezuela production is on track to increase 50% this year) and last but not least the legacy Castro regime collapsing in Cuba with freedom and prosperity once again a possibility. If those three pieces fall into place it won’t just be great for the citizens of those countries and for the security of most of the rest of the world, it would also serve to successfully undermine China and Russia’s expansionist ambitions potentially preventing an eventual World War III. But also importantly, since most Americans are primarily concerned about affordability, we would likely see the lowest gas prices in the country since 2020. Yesterday President Trump said, “oil prices will drop like a rock once a deal is made”. And not only did oil prices fall by over $12 per barrel yesterday to $85 – the lowest in two weeks – it's likely the case that by the midterms this year gas prices would be lower than what we’ve seen since about the rollout of COVID vaccines (due to higher production in Venezuela, non-Iranian OPEC members and the United States). And that would pave the path for lower interest rates, greater affordability and a faster growth economy. That’s the optimistic view of what can come out of this – but importantly based on the president’s guidance – it's an increasingly realistic view of what can come out of this.
Takeaway #3 An early cycle temperature check
For some voters, like me and my wonderful and talented wife Ashley, today already marks the third election we’ve participated in, in 2026. It’s special Election Day for two elections in the Palm Beaches. The two races are Florida’s 87th District between Democrat Emily Gregory and Republican Jon Maples and in the North Group 4 special election with three candidates vying for the seat in North Palm Beach. Last Friday I shared analysis showing that in March’s municipal elections Republicans outperformed Democrats locally – which is especially notable given that there’s a good chance PBC flips to a GOP majority for the first time in the county’s history prior to this November’s Election Day. Today we’ll see if there’s follow through in the first partisan election of the year that could be an indication of the mood of voters within our state during this critical gubernatorial election year. Entering this cycle, the partisan voter registration information for District 87 looked very similar to the state’s. 41% of the district’s registered voters are Republicans (the same as the state), 33% are Democrats with 26% registered NPA’s and minor parties. The right-leaning district is R+8.4%. Special elections are notoriously low turnout elections which further speaks to the energy level and motivation for voters to vote in this year’s election cycle. The numbers I’ll be watching are these: Will at least 8.4% more Republicans vote than Democrats in the district or will Democrats win the turnout battle by closing the gap? And secondly, I’ll be looking at 19%. That’s the margin Republican Mike Caruso won the district by in each of the prior two elections. What we’ve seen is that, just like the state of Florida as a whole, District 87’s NPA’s have been mostly inclined to break for Republicans. Is that still the case, and if so, to what extent? People always try to read too much into special elections, and that’s likely to be the case either way with the District 87 race. However, it not only happens to be happening locally – it happens to be the district that’s closest to the state’s overall partisan splits, making it the best real-world poll of where we stand in advance of the August primaries.