The Message Received by Florida’s GOP – Top 3 Takeaways – March 26th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Message Received?
My top takeaway yesterday was that there were...problems for the GOP. And most specifically I focused in on what appears to have become the most reported state house election result in Florida’s history. Thanks to Emily Gregory’s flip of President Trump’s home district the reporting around the world yesterday was like this: Democrat Emily Gregory wins Florida race to represent Mar a Lago - AP, Emily Gregory secures major win in Florida as Democrats flip Trump’s Mar-a-Lago district – The News International, Who is Emily Greogry? Democrat who flipped Trump’s Mar-a-Lago district (here’s a hint – she’s similar to the blueprint I said Democrats would be running with after their success last November with seemingly non-threatening milk toasty white women in New Jersey and Virginia) Newsweek. Emily Gregory: The First Timer who flipped seat in Trump’s backyard – The (British) Independent. Democrat captures Florida House seat in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago district - Al Jazeera, which as an aside it just somehow seems appropriate that Al Jazeera would suggest the seat was captured. So anyway, you get the idea. But the more important question is whether the GOP gets the idea? Two observations from over the past day. The first is that you better believe, with all of Gregory’s sudden notoriety, the state’s Democrat Party is going to go all on in on retaining this seat for her in the general election. The Democrat’s bench in the state has been essentially non-existent, and Emily Gregory is going to positioned for bigger races in the very near future. That potentially raises the stakes for this specific House race later this year. My second observation is that from conservative listeners to conservative politicians across the state it does seem that there was...
Takeaway #2: A message that was received...
It was just last Friday in one of my takeaways entitled Lessons from California that I brought you this: Here’s an opinion piece published in the LA Times this week: Even as a passionate Democrat, I would be more than open to voting for a solid Republican candidate for governor. Our Democratic administration and Legislature have not, in my view, made sufficient enough headway on our state's two most vexing issues — homelessness and the high cost of housing — to continue to receive my unwavering support. Perhaps a supermajority isn't everything it's cracked up to be. And as I went on to say... <<It’s long been that case that California’s failures have only aided Florida’s success. But there’s also a risk for our state that was articulated in the aforementioned op-ed. The reason Florida has had so much success from having the top ranked education system to the top ranked economy is due to great public policy. But over the past two years since the advent of Daniel Perez as Speaker of Florida’s House, he’s been more interested in fighting Governor DeSantis than he has been in establishing effective public policy to address our state’s biggest needs and greatest concerns – which, much like the country as a whole, involve public policy. Perez’s contention had been that Governor DeSantis had gained too much power and influence in this state and that he needed to reestablish the state House as an independent co-equal branch of government. When Daniel Perez gave his “farewell speech” last week at the end of the session, he said he was proud to have “taken back the House” during his two years. That’s his big accomplishment? What’s that mean to you? When Democrats have a supermajority in power, they can absolutely destroy a wonderful state through bad public policy. What Republicans risk in this state, is that without significant Democrat resistance in Tallahassee, they instead turn on each other out of ego, self-importance or some other foolish thing that doesn’t have to do with you or me or any of their constituencies.>> As I mentioned in my analysis of this race yesterday – the problem for Jon Maples in this race wasn’t partisan turnout. Republicans outvoted Democrats by nearly 10% - meaning that the GOP even outperformed it’s partisan splits by way of voter registration in the district. But instead, there clearly was a massive problem with non-party affiliated voters in this district who’d previously been voting for the GOP. Much like the “Lesson from California” I highlighted as a risk for Floridians just last Friday, it’s not only a certainty that NPA’s largely broke the Democrats way, but it’s probably the case that some registered Republicans frustrated by the lack of action in Tallahassee on the issues that matter most to them, peeled off too (like the Democrat in California who’s voting for a Republican for governor). This rings especially true as it also turns out that Democrats flipped the state senate seat formerly held by Lt. Governor Jay Collins blue too. It’s too late for the state legislature to do what should have been done in the regular session. But it’s now paramount that the legislature sticks the landing in the upcoming special session(s) delivering on matters of affordability and listening to their constituents (and for that matter DeSantis who gets this) as opposed to the pestilence presented by Daniel Perez – who notably, Mike Caruso was an outspoken critic of prior to being appointed Clerk and Comptroller.
Takeaway #3: Speaking of messages...
One wonders if the GOP in Washington, D.C. is getting the message? SAVE Act? Not passed. Homeland Security funding? Held hostage by Democrats with Republicans that aren’t willing to change Senate rules to bring back a real filibuster but instead are attempting to cut deals that would result in massive future consequences by breaking ICE funding out from the rest of the Department of Homeland Security funding. The idea’s so weak President Trump sent this message when asked about it yesterday: I think any deal they make, I’m pretty much not happy with it. That likely sums up the feelings of most constituents too. If they don’t get their act together soon – it's likely the case that November will be very blue.