What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Weekly Market Update March 31st, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation remain in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: -7% (-2% last week)
- S&P 500: -7% (-3% last week)
- Nasdaq: -10% (-5% last week)
As we’ve entered the fifth week of the Iran war, we also have five consecutive weeks of declines for stocks alongside of it. By the close of trading on Friday, the Dow and Nasdaq were in correction territory, a decline of 10% or more, while the S&P 500 was just over 1% away from a correction.
Meanwhile, crypto currencies continued the massive multi-year bear market selloff last week as risk-off investors, including many institutional investors, have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -25% 2026 (-5% last week)
- Ether: -33% in 2026 (-7% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -29% in 2026 (-7% last week)
The one asset class posting gains last week in the face of selling – precious metals with gold and silver both trading higher. Both commodities had been the best performers over the prior two years – however it’s been a rocky ride this year with silver still negative year-to-date. It’s notable that gold and silver have been the worst performing asset class since the onset of the Iran war in addition to the strongest performers over the prior two years.
- Gold: +5% 2026 (+4% last week)
- Silver: -1% in 2026 (+4% last week)
As for the big picture stuff entering this week...
It’s not quite as easy as looking at what oil prices are doing day to day and being able to determine what stocks will do – but it’s been close to that since the onset of the Iran war. A lack of clarity/visibility into outlooks is an enemy of stock market performance as large investors often will sit on the sidelines until there’s a better understanding of what the macro-economic outlook may be.
Oil prices (WTI) closed Friday over $100 per barrel (at $101) - the highest daily close since the onset of the way due to President Trump’s announcement of constructive talks with Iran and an additional-day pause of attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure – which had been threatened over the weekend. Unlike last Monday’s delay – the most recent wasn’t viewed as constructive as there’s a growing belief among traders that there will be a protracted problem with energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world’s energy supply comes from.
Aside from Iran, concerns of rising inflation are growing due to elevated oil prices with some analysts believing it may be possible for interest rates to rise as opposed to further cuts this year. The bottom line is that the longer the Iran war continues – the greater the risks are for inflationary pressures to elevate.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 27.25
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 41% drop from here, 1% less risk compared with a week ago as stock prices fell faster than fundamentals. The market is 7% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 41% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.