What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update April 13th, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation remain in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: -1% (+3% last week)
- S&P 500: -1% (+3% last week)
- Nasdaq: -1% (+4% last week)
Markets rallied hard last week on optimism of the ceasefire in Iran – with stocks producing the best weekly rally in about six months. The question coming into this week is if those gains can be sustained.
As we’ve entered the seventh week of the Iran war, we do so with a ceasefire in place – however we’re also entering this week without a peace deal as 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend failed to produce progress – leaving more questions than answers about what comes next with Iran. Also, of concern within the financial markets (in addition to anyone buying gasoline), there’s the matter of what’s been going through the Strait of Hormuz (or for the most part hasn’t been).
Since the onset of the ceasefire last week, traffic through the strait increased from about 2% of the daily cargo to a peak about 12% last Thursday in the second full day of the ceasefire. Traffic through the strait actually fell over the week to only about 10% of typical traffic as shippers are reluctant to test the waters with the IRGC still exerting operational control to pass through the strait charging tolls of just over $1 million per ship to pass through. This figures to be a highly consequential week for one way or another in Iran.
Independent of Iranian news, inflation data showed the impact of rising energy prices during the first full month of the war with consumer inflation back above 3% at 3.3% during March. Ex energy, the rate was 2.6% - and the key concern as the war/ceasefire situation drags on is whether the higher energy prices create a “sticky” or more permanent inflation issue.
Something else on the minds of many is the overall state of the U.S. economy. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate for the first quarter was revised down to 1.3% - the estimate had been above 3% prior to the onset of the Iran war.
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were a mixed bag last week as the massive multi-year bear market remains firmly in place. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -19% 2026 (+4% last week)
- Ether: -27% in 2026 (+4% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -21% in 2026 (+5% last week)
Once again, one asset class which performed best over the past week, is the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years - precious metals with gold and silver both trading higher. Last week’s rally brought silver back into positive territory for the year.
- Gold: +11% 2026 (+2% last week)
- Silver: +8% in 2026 (+5% last week)
As for the big picture stuff entering this week...
Oil prices (WTI) closed last week at $95 per barrel - or $17 lower than the previous week. Without resolution and slow traffic through the strait how will energy prices react? We’re also heading into earnings season this week and guidance (or the lack thereof) from companies will be closely watched as people attempt to discern what the impact of the Iran war is on businesses and AI strategies.
The biggest corporate story of the past week was AI heavyweight Anthropic’s release of its new Claude models. Early indications suggest they’re easily the best-in-class AI suite of products in the world with so much current capability that the company is having to slow release the product for use in corporate America and government as its power in the wrong hands could have devastating consequences – especially for cyber security concerns.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 29.26
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 45% drop from here, 2% more risk compared with a week ago as stock prices rose while fundamentals didn’t improve. The market is 3% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 45% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.