Is the Iran War Really Close to Being Over? – Top 3 Takeaways – April 16th, 2026
Takeaway #1: (Not So) Very Close to Being Over
I was tempted to make my top takeaway today about Tax Day once again channeling my inner Jeff Foxworthy in the process... As in you know you pay way too much in federal incomes if... A la you know you pay way too much in taxes if...your scheduled IRS tax payment triggers fraud alerts. This happened yesterday. I truly laughed out loud. I so wanted to tell the financial institution that the IRS’ debit did amount to fraud but as the dutiful taxpayer who continues to pay about half of what I/we (my wonderful & talented wife Ashley) make in total taxes (federal, property and sales taxes)...I confirmed that the debit was legitimate. But anyway, my top takeaway isn't’ actually about taxes again – though – if you missed my top takeaway yesterday – the one where the average tax filing American has had $13,150 more in their pocket because Donald Trump became president of the United States – it's worth you checking out... But no, my top takeaway coming into today is that it so doesn’t sound, seem, or feel like the Iranian conflict is “very close to being over” as President Trump stated to Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday. Among the developments overseas on Wednesday were these: More Iranian vessels attempting to navigate the strait but were stopped by the U.S. blockade. The Iranian response was to threaten block shipping outside of the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. blockade continues, which they could potentially do using their weaponized speedboats, but also by employing their regional terror proxy group, the Houthis, to do too. During the course of his life President Trump has been such a force of nature that it’s often seemed that even after setbacks he’s been able to will whatever it is that he’s trying to accomplish into existence. Given his commentary earlier this week, it seemed to me to be a similar thing. As in Trump saying that the conflict with Iran was almost over and thus somehow creating that kind of reality. But knowing what the Mullahs in Iran believe – which isn’t just in Sharia Law – which means no head for you if you don’t believe what they believe (because remember that Islam is the religion of peace) - but also in the well Imam (aka the 12th Imam), I’ve had a hard time believing that the same freakish cultists who’ve believed that if they can start a nuclear war wiping out most of civilization that their 12th Imam savior will come out of a well... will suddenly
Takeaway #2: Give up nuclear ambitions and opt for peace
(which perhaps not-so-coincidentally sounds an awful like the Biblical depiction of hell). This became even more apparent following last weekend’s peace talks went nowhere because Iran said they want to develop nukes and our position is no nukes. To date I’ve given the president and the administration the benefit of the doubt that they know all of these things and that they had plans to account for contingencies. One of the moments that provided some hope about a potential path forward came when President Trump said that the new leaders in Iran were “more reasonable” than the former leaders Israel had taken out. But what we’ve seen since suggests the third of fourth string mullahs aren’t different in their beliefs than the first string happened to be. Executions of protesters have continued under the new regime. Insistence in nuclear production has too. Trump recently said: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and we're going to get the dust back. We'll get it back. Either we'll get it back from them or we'll take it. Show of hands...how many people think the Iranian mullahs are going to give it? Therefore, I’m having trouble seeing there scenario here where we don’t have boots on the ground taking and changing things there. Iran isn’t transactional like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. These are ideologues of another kind entirely. So, while the rhetoric sounded nice earlier this week... I have a hard time seeing how this is very close to being over...at least without significant escalation first...unless we simply cave and walk away. Meanwhile, here at home...
Takeaway #3: From sea to shining sea
If there’s one thing President Trump likes to see it’s his name on things. He was certainly appreciative earlier this year when the four-mile stretch of Southern Blvd. from Palm Beach International Airport to Mar-a-Lago was ceremonially renamed Donald J. Trump Blvd. But now thanks to the newly signed Transportation bill his name will be on State Road 80 officially – not just ceremonially - for all 124 miles across the state from A1A in Palm Beach County through where SR 80 ends in Hendry County. This kicks in July 1st with the start of the state’s new fiscal year as well. Which means that starting in July he’ll fly into Donald J. Trump International Airport and travel down President Donald J. Trump Highway. And if he’s so inclined, he could travel across the state on his own highway, or effectively from sea to shining sea...as in the Atlantic to the Gulf of America – something else that of course he had a hand in renaming.