What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update May 11th, 2026
Iran, earnings and the Federal Reserve remain in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +2.5% (+>1% last week)
- S&P 500: +8% (+2% last week)
- Nasdaq: +13% (+4% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were flat to higher last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -9% 2026 (->1% last week)
- Ether: -23% in 2026 (flat last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -15% in 2026 (+1% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were losers over the past week though they remain the best performers year-to-date.
- Gold: +10% 2026 (+2% last week)
- Silver: +15% in 2026 (+9% last week)
While last week featured some of the highest prices for gas in years, it also featured the longest winning streak for the S&P 500 in years as a combination of outstanding earnings and better than expected jobs reports from ADP and the BLS powered stocks to record highs yet again. To date the AI tech boom has proved to be both accretive to the U.S. economy and to the labor market thus far in a move that’s surprised many.
While many tech-related jobs have been cut due to AI innovations, those jobs have been more than offset by gains in infrastructure to support the AI-boom. This includes job gains with construction firms, utility companies, technology firms, etc. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold over the longer term, however the history of U.S. innovation has shown that gains in technological achievement have led to dislocations in certain jobs, however with significant net additional jobs over the longer term. As we’re in the early stages of AI adaptation within the United States – we might be seeing those dynamics play out already. As for earnings...
As of Friday, 89% of companies had reported for the first quarter of the year. The results have been particularly strong with earnings having grown at a staggering 28% year-over-year, the largest gain in earnings dating back to 2021 when companies began to rebound from COVID-era lockdowns. It’s proving to be a historically great quarterly reporting period. This has allowed investors to look past the current economic headwinds.
On the jobs front, the government’s job report on Friday showed 115,000 jobs added in April, about twice as large as expected, with wage gains totaling 3.6% year-over-year – which is higher than the rate of inflation at just over 3%. This helps illustrate how the consumer economy has continued to get by despite the highest gas prices in 3.5 years over the past couple of months.
Now for valuation calculations... Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 31.83
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 49% drop from here, 1% higher than a week ago, as stock prices rose a bit faster than fundamentals. The market has equaled its risk adjusted highs, as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 49% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.