Oh My CPI, A Florida Milestone for the GOP & Rubio vs. AOC? – Top 3 Takeaways – May 13th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Yeah, Inflation is a problem
Ok, this could be just about the most captain obvious statement of all. After all, you’ve been paying for stuff every day and didn’t need a government report to tell you life has become more expensive. Literally every political poll has been saying the economy and specifically affordability has been the biggest issue in this country for quite some time. But with that said, there can be, and often is, a disparity between perception and reality. For example, while the economy and affordability had been the top issue surveyed for every month of the Trump presidency – the fact of the matter was that the average family’s quality of life and buying power had improved every month of the Trump presidency...that is until last month. As I’ve previously covered... during the four years of the Biden administration real earnings (meaning average household incomes net of inflation) dropped by 1.6%...meaning the average family’s buying power and general standing of living was worse by the end of the Biden administration, than at the beginning of it – which is an extremely rare thing in American history. Through the first year of the current Trump administration real earnings (inflation adjusted) were up 1% with progress that had continued every month...through March. By the third week of the Iran war, I’d mentioned that we’d begun to enter precarious territory. Specifically, that higher gas prices were threatening to become ‘sticky’. Paying higher gas prices than you want to be paying temporarily is one thing. However, paying more for everything because of higher gas prices is a much bigger thing and that’s what sticky inflation is. Due to the cost of transportation, at a minimum, higher fuel prices hold the potential to lead to a higher cost of all goods. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index Report, reflecting the prices we paid for stuff in April, showed two less than pleasant things...1) The average American fell behind last month for the first time under Trump and 2) Inflation began to become ‘sticky’ too. Inflation is reported in two ways. The headline inflation rate, which includes the total cost of goods year-over-year in April, and the ‘core’ inflation rate which strips out the more volatile prices of food and energy. The headline inflation rate reflected an acceleration in inflation to 3.8% - which was the highest in almost three years. The bigger issue...Friday’s jobs report showed the average person’s income grew by 3.6% year-over-year in April. Thus, net household income net of inflation fell by 0.2% last month. Not good. And neither was the core inflation rate. The core inflation rate rose by a much lower 2.8% rate, which is a good thing – meaning that if we did see a quick and sharp drop in energy prices, the overall inflation rate could drop by about 1% right away. But what’s not good about that number is that it was 2.5% prior to the Iran war. What this means is that we’re starting to see the higher energy prices becoming ‘sticky’ - meaning that even if energy prices dropped sharply and quickly, we’ll be paying for a higher rate of inflation for a longer period than we were before the Iran war. What it also means, given that the newest information in this data is already about two weeks old, is that every day that goes by with higher energy prices in place these two issues will persist inflation becoming slightly sticker by the day. This raises the stakes for what’s set to take place in China starting today. President Trump is accompanied by 16 top business leaders who’re clearly heading to Beijing to do some dealing. Importantly, China wants an end to the Iran war and for that matter and end to the Russia-Ukraine war too. Could these next three days be the key to solving these things? If Republicans are to stand a fighting chance in the midterms to retain congress Trump needs them to be. Speaking of politics...
Takeaway #2: Florida’s GOP is in record territory
In general, political momentum in this cycle may not be trending in the direction of the GOP, but in Florida the performance by the Republican Party is record setting. Technically that’s something that you could have said in all months but one since Republicans first gained a voter registration majority in November of 2021 – however the history that Florida’s Republican Party set last month placed it into milestone territory. The latest data dump of voter registration information from the Florida Division of Elections reflecting all voting registration changes as of the start of May produced two meaningful takeaways – 1) There are now more than 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats across the state of Florida and 2) The GOP voter registration advantage is now the largest by either party in Florida’s history – eclipsing the size of the biggest Democrat voter registration edge over Republicans from the 1970’s. What’s more is that there’s no end in sight. On tomorrow’s show I’ll break down some of the specifics within key counties within this state...and here’s a hint. Currently two of Florida’s five largest counties have Republican majorities by way of voter registration – Miami Dade and Hillsborough. Two more of the top five are currently on pace to flip before Election Day...indicating that there’s likely to be more voter registration milestones on the way – including one that hits home for many of us. And one more quick political hitter...
Takeaway #3: Could the Democrat’s 2028 nominee really be AOC?
Though I’m frequently asked, I’m not inclined to talk in any meaningful way about what may come to be politically in 2028. It's currently premature to read into what’s likely to happen in the midterm elections this year, let alone what’s likely to take place two years from now. However, yesterday there was one interesting piece of surveying that caught my eye for two reasons. Specifically, the candidates Atlas Intel - which was the most accurate pollster of the entire 2024 election cycle. For the first time in any nationally accredited poll of hypothetical 2028 presidential candidates, Marco Rubio showed a significant (15-point) lead among Republican voters over JD Vance – which honestly is something I’ve expected to see to awhile. One thing I’ll not be shy about is telling you that while all polls to date had shown JD Vance with a large lead, I fully expect the next GOP presidential nominee will be from Florida. But at least as interesting as Rubio being shown with a big theoretical lead was that AOC was shown in the same poll as the theoretical top choice among the sampled Democrat constituency. If you thought Democrats running Kamala Harris was bottom of the barrel territory it would seem that many on the left are seriously interested in AOC. If that matchup actually came to be, I feel like a Rubio vs. AOC debate should be pay-per-view programming it would be so entertaining. But seriously, while I’d consider it unlikely that AOC will be the Democrat’s nominee, what it does show is that in the battle for control of the DNC – the most radical wing of that party is winning. Which btw, is one more reason that even when it’s an election back home, voting for Democrats is an increasingly risky thing – because the party is only moving in one direction and that’s towards the Bernie Sanders – AOC wing which is what’s driving their open borders, sanctuary state, sanctuary city, wealth tax / socialist, homosexual alphabet agenda. Unless you’re a proud pronoun Olympian with Socialist beliefs – the Democrat Party isn’t the place where you want to be.