Now What? President Trump’s Political Wins & the Other Self-Deportations – Top 3 Takeaways – May 18th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Now what?
Last week I began the week with a glass half full kind of message. Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a three-day ceasefire at President Trump’s request and President Trump was set to meet with President Xi Jinping in China which holds the greatest influence over Russia and Iran. Also, and importantly, China wants to see an end to both wars and resolution in the Strait of Hormuz too. But in the end, China’s desire to acquire Taiwan which would allow China to have AI-supremacy due to the manufacturing prowess of Taiwan Semi, proved to be the bigger thing, so the big stuff didn’t get done. As for what did consummate...only a deal for 200 Boeing jets and an ongoing conversation about China potentially buying American oil and perhaps some more soybeans. They’re deals that might come together by September 24th, the next meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi which will take place at the White House. That meeting is, of course, another thing that came out of the meetings last week. The underwhelming outcome in Beijing has many wondering...Now what? As in where do we go from here since there’s no meaningful evidence coming out of last week that China is going to use its considerable influence to rein in Iran or seemingly Russia?...although that’s another development that came out of last week’s summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin is now making his way to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping this week. That’s a meeting that could go one of two ways from our perspective. Either Xi could seek an end to both wars, or they could be conspiring over what the top two modern Axis powers plan to do going forward since the U.S. isn’t going to play ball with China taking over Taiwan. At a minimum it’s reasonable to expect that China will be seeking additional Russian energy as 49% of the country’s oil has been taken offline due to a mostly closed Strait of Hormuz and Venezuela's oil now heading to the U.S. As for Iran it’s unclear what comes next but with oil prices have risen back to about $105 – and inflation sitting at three-year highs – the status quo isn’t going to be the way to go. Over the weekend, President Trump Truthed out a military image of him directing the Navy with the caption...It was the calm before the storm...
Takeaway #2: As for the political battles President Trump is still winning...
If there’s one thing that’s been learned in the ongoing primary season, it’s that among Republican primary voters – President Trump’s endorsement is worth its weight in gold. Recently President Trump knocked off several state legislators in Indiana after they balked at redistricting. That was after just about every Trump-endorsed candidate had previously won primary races. And then, over the weekend in Louisiana, the ultimate sign of strength showed up. Not only did President Trump effectively campaign against Republican Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to impeach him after January 6th, knocking him off in the primary, but Cassidy, a sitting two-term senator finished third...with only 25%! That’s unheard of. And so now his political priority is knocking off House nemeses Tomas Massie in Kentucky tomorrow (and all who campaign for him – which included Congresswoman Lauren Boebert and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul). Based on what we’ve seen in the primaries thus far there’s a good chance that Massie will be done tomorrow, however President Trump’s wins in GOP primaries may be for not if there’s a blue wave that place the party in a minority position next January.
Takeaway #3: The other self-deportations
The hallmark of President Trump’s year one deportation policies wasn’t the total number of illegal aliens detained and ultimately deported (which was just north of 600,000), but rather how many decided they didn’t want to potentially get scoped up and be placed in Alligator Alcatraz or other detention facilities awaiting deportation. In total, approximately 3 million illegal aliens deported from the country last year, with most doing so on their own – which is the most efficient and effective way to combat illegal immigration. But illegal aliens haven’t been the only one’s self-deporting. TDSers have too. A Brookings Institute Study showed that up to 405,000 Americans have deported to other countries over the past year – a record one-year total...and the overwhelming reason for the surge in expats? Politics. A recent survey of expats shows 89% of those who’ve left the U.S. over the past year did so due to politics. Notably, this is a trend in Florida that I’ve previously spoken too. My research has shown that the reason Florida so rapidly changed from being considered the ultimate swing state, to perhaps being the ultimate red state, was due not just to conservatives flocking to Florida from blue states, but also due to Florida exporting Democrats to other states. There’s been a growing trend within the United States to relocate to states that fit one’s ideology. Over the past year, what we’ve seen is a significant shift internationally. Self-deporting TDSers have become a thing too. Chalk it up as another unintended benefit of President Trump’s polices.