June’s Hurricane History – 2026
Bottom Line: Hurricane season is underway amid a series of preseason hurricane forecasts calling for a below average season this year. With the hurricane inhibitor El Nino already influencing weather patterns from the Pacific to the Atlantic, in addition to a steady stream of Saharan dust, we’re entering this year’s season with the least favorable environment for hurricane development we’ve had in many years. For the fifth consecutive year we’ve entered hurricane season without having had a tropical system develop ahead of it.
Entering this year’s hurricane season, Southeast Florida has been historically fortunate. The last storm to register hurricane force winds in our area was Irma in 2017 as she made her way through the Keys and up Florida’s Gulf Coast. The last hurricane to make a direct landfall in Southeast Florida was Wilma in 2005 (after having crossed the state from the Gulf coast). Here’s hoping we add another uneventful year.
According to NOAA, here’s what we should expect based on the midpoint of their guidance:
- 55% chance for a below normal season
- 8 to 14 named storms
- 3 to 6 hurricanes – 1-3 major (cat 3 or above)
As for what June has historically produced... Since the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes in 1851...
- 5% of all tropical storms
- 3% of all hurricanes
Something to keep in mind is that June storms generally form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June, 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month. Also, historically, about 3% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season... So, statistically we’re already a little of the way through the season as it starts.