2026 Midterm Election Update – September 30th, 2026
Bottom Line: Since the advent of the current two-party system (41 midterm elections), we've averaged the President's party losing 3 U.S. Senate seats and 28 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm election cycles. If that were to happen this cycle, Republicans would narrowly retain control the Senate, however Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives – which they last held in 2022.
Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need to flip four net seats to gain control, as Vice President JD Vance, as President of the Senate, would split 50-50 ties.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority (with two vacancies), meaning Democrats only need to flip three net seats to gain control of the chamber.
There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats (1934 during FDR's first term, 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term, and 2002 during George W. Bush's first term) thus only 3 out of 41 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party netting additional congressional seats. Here's another way of looking at it... History suggests there's a 93% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this cycle.
Will history repeat itself this year? There’s been one polling indicator which has been 100% accurate in midterm election cycles. The generic ballot. Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s, the party favored on Election Day on the generic ballot has fared best in every cycle. In the most recent cycle, the 2022 Midterm elections, Republicans were favored by 2.5% in the RealClear Politics average of polls and ended up winning 2.8% more of the vote nationally. So how about this cycle?
As of today, the generic ballot says:
- DEM +8.3% (vs. 8.3% September 23rd)
We're now under five weeks away from Election Day with most states, including Florida, having sent out vote by mail ballots to voters – meaning that the election season has already turned into Election Day for millions of voters across the country. The news over the past week based on the generic ballot performance we've seen remains exceedingly positive for Democrats as they've opened up their largest lead of the cycle.
With the economy, and specifically affordability concerns, consistently shown as the top issue this cycle – elevated gas prices due to the impact of the Iran war continue to act as a massive headwind for Republicans. Though, with Iran seeking a resumption of the MOU signed in June – which brought oil prices back to what were effectively prewar levels, the potential for a positive October surprise for Republicans may be in store if President Trump is able to find a successful resolution to the conflict – which may be possible due to the economic collapse of Iran due to the sustained conflict.
At the peak of the Iran war Democrats enjoyed a 7.7% generic ballot advantage – we're now beyond mark. The current advantage exceeds 2018’s blue wave election cycle and is on par with 2006’s blue wave. Republicans saw some improvement as energy prices came down from the earlier year, however that's gone the other way as energy prices have been on the rise most recently. And with oil topping $90 once again – for three-month highs – it's likely that the trend currently will continue to be the Democrats' friend.
With the generic ballot splits as they exist today, Democrats would likely win the cycle solidly if the election were today – with a performance that would sit close to a wave election result nationally. Notably, in midterm election cycles since the onset of the polling age in the 1930's, whatever party has had an advantage on the generic ballot at the onset of September has fared best nationally on Election Day.
A wildcard adding to the uncertainty this cycle are numerous states redrawing maps in advance of the midterm elections – including Florida. Redrawn maps will all factor into outcomes in a potentially unprecedented way.
Retirements also have historically proved to be significant. Congressional incumbents running for reelection have won over 90% of the time. It’s common for members of Congress who feel especially vulnerable to retire as opposed to potentially losing an election. Often the party with the most retirements performs worse in midterms. On that note to date here are the announced retirements in the House of Representatives:
- Democrats: 22
- Republicans: 36
And in the United States Senate:
- Democrats: 4
- Republicans: 6
I’ll track these dynamics from time-to-time as we head into this year’s midterm election cycle.